every move, annotated

Odds moved.
Here’s why.

When Polymarket or Kalshi odds jump, we tell you why, and whether the move is real or just noise. A short free brief, 8am and 6pm ET.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 15?

Example · Oct 19, 2026Polymarket · Mon Oct 19, 10am–7:30pm ET

Market implied at 6pm ET59.5%+20.5 pts from 39.0%
20% 40% 60% 11am 1pm 3pm 5pm 7pm 11:55am flash crash60.5% → 22.5% by 12:05pm1:10pm · the climb starts at 39%news lands here: we pin the headline to the minuteillustrative slot · no real headline shown59.5% at 6pm ET 20% 40% 60% 11am 3pm 7pm 11:55am flash crashnews lands here (illustrative):pinned to the minute59.5%
Line and figures: real Polymarket prices, 5-min samples. The news marker is illustrative: no real headline is shown.Example, not a live alert. Information only, not advice.

what you get for each big move

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

Replay examplePolymarket · Sun Oct 18, 10:30–10:40am ET

Our take: likely noise, may drift back.

One sudden jump, no follow-through yet.

Market implies
50.5%, up 48 pts from 2.5%
What to watch
Back below 26.5% this time tomorrow means it was noise.

A day later: 3.9%. Right, it was noise.

were we right?

Replay of 127 moves, Oct 15–20: right 90, wrong 34, 3 too early to tell.

Replay, not live: our current rule run on real past prices. Nothing was published, and the news wasn't checked.

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how it works

Three marks on every move.

  1. We spot the move

    We watch Polymarket and Kalshi and flag the big odds moves.

  2. We look for the news

    We find the most likely headline, or say plainly when there isn't one.

  3. We check ourselves

    A day later we mark each call right or wrong, and show the record.